The French Government Is On The Verge Of Collapse

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President of the French Modem centrist party, Francois Bayrou arrives to attend a national ceremony for Lieutenant-Colonel Arnaud Beltrame, on March 28, 2018 at the Hotel des Invalides in Paris. France honours during a national ceremony on March 28 a heroic policeman who died offering himself as a hostage in a jihadist attack. Beltrame, 44, was the fourth and final victim in the shooting spree on March 23 in the southwestern towns of Carcassonne and nearby Trebes. / AFP PHOTO / POOL / LUDOVIC MARIN (Photo credit should read LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

Oscar Wilde’s line that ‘to lose one parent is a misfortune, to lose both looks like carelessness’ can be applied to politics, notably to France’s earnest President Emmanuel Macron, who may lose his fourth prime minister in just over eighteen months when Francois Bayrou submits his government to the mercy of parliament next week.

The likely fall of the Bayrou cabinet may see another powerless coalition cobbled together, or even a general election. In the near term the risk is of a collision between Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement (old Front National), the bond market and the French state.

That also most surely means the end of the ‘Macronie’, in the sense that Macron is in office but not in power. Polls suggest that few French people would regret or contest this.

It should not have come to this. Unlike many of its neighbours France has generally very good public services, transport and education systems, and Macron has manifestly enlivened the private investment and technology sectors of the economy. Economic growth has been decent by comparison to the UK and Germany at least. Compared to many of its peers and competitors, France is an agreeable and affordable place to live.

However, on Macron’s watch, France has become imperilled financially, the issue of immigration and identity still taxes public life to the extent that the Rassemblement is now the largest single party in parliament, and in foreign policy, France has lost sway in Africa and the Middle East, and more generally on the world stage. Another omission, where the broader elite is complicit, is the failure to reform the French democratic system.

In that context, there are perhaps three lessons from the wimpering end to the Macron era.

The first is that the major economies are now well and truly in the ‘Age of Debt’, where the consequences of indebtedness pervade and dominate politics, financial markets, geopolitics and society. The large economies of the world have never been so indebted, and the fact that they are at the same time will ultimately make debt reduction more disorderly. The Trump administration recognises this and is adopting highly unorthodox, risky measures to make its debt load less unsustainable. In Britain, there is widespread recognition of the country’s fiscal fragility, but policy makers are yet highly risk averse in tackling it. That France is in denial will only make the correction all the more painful.

In France, there is scant willingness on the part of the policy elite nor any of the political parties to seriously address France’s financial situation, and like a fancily dressed pauper, it continues to live beyond its means. For the time being, it can hide behind the euro, but its fellow euro-zone member states will soon become vigilant that France does not trigger another European financial crisis. The upshot of this is the loss of economic autonomy for France.

The second lesson is for centrist parties in the dwindling number of democracies in the world. In the context of the unravelling of the old, globalised order, amidst interference in European affairs from larger countries, government of the centre need to tackle problems like immigration, debt and geopolitics head on, with more aggression, else the parties of the fringe will capitalise on their inaction. Concretely, this amounts to a very different tempo of politics in Europe, and one that is ultimately more singular.

The third lesson, which is specifically European but that will strike a lesson with many Americans, is that European needs to take control of and change the narrative on its own destiny. European leaders have been far too reactive to the demands of the White House, and the violence of the Kremlin.

A lot of hope was placed on Macron to shape a narrative for Europe in the world, notably so in the absence of clarity of thought and leadership from many other European countries like Germany. Europe’s narrative should be that increasingly, for valuable public goods – democracy, the rule of law, education, healthcare and culture – it is the best place in the world. The problem is in paying for it.