Buy or Sell META Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?

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Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) is set to publish its earnings report on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. For those trading based on events, analyzing Meta’s historical stock behavior surrounding earnings can be vital, although the actual outcomes compared to expectations will predominantly influence the market.

In the last five years, Meta’s stock has portrayed a notably volatile yet evenly distributed reaction to earnings surprises. In 50% of the cases, the stock recorded a positive one-day return, yielding a notable median increase of 7.7% and a peak one-day rise of 23.3%. On the other hand, in the remaining 50% of situations, the stock faced a negative one-day return, with a median decrease of -4.7% and a peak one-day fall of -26.4%. This symmetrical but extreme historical behavior emphasizes the substantial risk and reward linked to trading Meta around earnings announcements.

Considering this historical tendency, event-driven traders may choose between two main strategies:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: One tactic involves grasping these historical probabilities and positioning oneself ahead of the earnings announcement, expecting a potentially significant movement in either direction.
• Post-Earnings Positioning: Alternatively, traders can wait until the earnings are released, assess the immediate stock reaction, then investigate the relationship between those quick responses and possible medium-term returns to adjust their positions as needed.

Currently, analysts forecast Meta to report earnings of $5.90 per share with revenues of $44.8 billion. These projections indicate growth compared to the same quarter last year, when Meta reported earnings of $5.16 per share on revenues of $39.07 billion.

From a fundamental perspective, Meta Platforms holds a significant current market capitalization of $1.8 trillion. Over the past year, the company produced $170 billion in revenue, presenting strong operational profitability with $73 billion in operating profits and a net income of $67 billion.

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See earnings reaction history of all stocks

Meta Platforms’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are some insights on one-day (1D) returns following earnings announcements:

• There have been 20 earnings data points noted over the past five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns recorded. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred about 50% of the time.
• Remarkably, this percentage rises to 64% if we look at data from the last 3 years instead of the last 5.
• The median of the 10 positive returns = 7.7%, and the median of the 10 negative returns = -4.7%

Additional information for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky approach (though ineffective if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identify a pair with the strongest correlation, and carry out the correct trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D reflect the highest correlation, a trader can take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation information based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) data. Note that the correlation 1D_5D denotes the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Occasionally, peer performance can affect stock reactions following earnings announcements. Indeed, the pricing-in may begin prior to the announcements. Below is some historical data regarding the past post-earnings performance of Meta Platforms stock compared to the stock behaviors of peers that released earnings shortly before Meta Platforms. For a fair assessment, the returns of peer stocks also signify post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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