Civil War Within Javier Milei’s “Iron Triangle” Puts Pressure As Elections Near
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Javier Milei’s “iron triangle” is breaking down amidst corruption accusations.
Joaquin Temes
Tension has been building within the once impenetrable “iron triangle” composed of President Javier Milei, his sister and chief-of-staff Karina, and controversial political strategist Santiago Caputo.
Karina is achieving total victory over her political rivals, from the Macris to “Caputito,” as Santiago is mockingly called despite recently turning 40. She has managed to impose her will by deciding that political strategy would no longer be run by the consultant but rather by her trusted lieutenants: Lower House Speaker Martín Menem and her key advisor Eduardo “Lule” Menem. They will be responsible for the libertarian coalition’s national strategy, while Sebastián Pareja leads the charge in Buenos Aires Province—known as the “mother of all battles” due to its massive share of the electorate.
Caputo, who no longer participates in the highest-level meetings according to journalist Javier Calvo’s reporting in Perfil, has been relegated merely to his role as a political and communications consultant from the Jaime Durán Barba school of thought.
Corruption acccusations including both sides have surfaced, putting pressure on the government in general as it is going into elections, both provincial this weekend and national midterms in October.
Power Restructuring and Internal Audit
The advisor’s extended network of power within the Milei administration is being audited and reduced. Government sources have told Perfil that the Menems are encroaching on Caputo’s territory, with clear intentions of stripping him of political and economic responsibilities. Communications could be among the first areas removed from Caputo’s control, with speculation that the SIDE intelligence agency might also be revoked from his sphere of influence.
These power struggles were reported by journalist Giselle Leclerq, who confirmed the ongoing confrontation within the “iron triangle.” It’s difficult to imagine Caputo emerging unharmed, particularly since the final arbiter is Javier Milei himself. Caputo has reportedly anticipated his eventual exit from the administration, hinting that when it happens, it won’t be peaceful.
The Scatturice Scandal
One element of this battle is playing out publicly and causing significant harm to the government’s credibility. The February arrival in Buenos Aires of conservative think tank CPAC’s Latin American coordinator, Laura Belén Arrieta, aboard a private jet owned by the mysterious Leonardo Scatturice with ten undeclared pieces of luggage, exposed a potentially larger scandal.
In a recent cover story for Noticias, Rodis Recalt detailed the network of companies owned and operated by Scatturice that hold multimillion-peso contracts with the state. The alleged former spy is also one of Argentina’s gatekeepers to Florida’s MAGA world surrounding Donald Trump, from which Milei derives part of his global legitimacy with the “new right” and political favor with the US Treasury Department, which controls the International Monetary Fund.
Scatturice has also signed a lobbying contract to represent Argentina’s agencies with their US counterparts. This makes it even more suspicious that an employee of his was escorted through customs and immigration controls without basic checks, VIP-style, with ten suitcases in tow. Furthermore, Scatturice has experienced exponential growth in wealth and power and maintains direct connections with media heavyweight Daniel Hadad, owner of popular outlet Infobae and a family member of another Arrieta employer, Mario De La Fuente.
The case promises to generate continued headlines, and given Scatturice’s close proximity to Caputo, should proportionally affect him. Some suggest it’s part of a targeted operation against Caputo by his political enemies, namely the Menems. The response came almost immediately when news reports surfaced regarding the Menem family’s multiple business dealings with the government, including Tech Security’s four-billion-peso contract with Banco Nación signed recently. The situation escalated with the leaked audios from Andis national agency for the handicapped, Diego Spagnuolo, directly implicating Karina and the Menems in a corruption scheme with pharmaceutical companies. Conflicts of interest appear widespread across the administration.
Media Pressure and Censorship
The Scatturice incident also triggered a media counter-offensive and censorship across different outlets, along with the firing of high-profile journalists. At Radio con Vos, Jairo Straccia had emerged as a critical voice of the Milei administration. His show was recently cancelled and he was pushed out under pressure for his coverage, including that of the Scatturice affair. Journalist Julián D’Imperio reported this case along with another involving Mariano Hamilton, who was fired from C5N cable news channel.
This wouldn’t be the first time the Casa Rosada has used its influence to silence journalists covering uncomfortable issues. Early in Milei’s presidency, C5N informally accepted that it should moderate coverage of the president’s dogs, his sister, and Caputo, as Juan Luis García has reported. Despite promising to eliminate official advertising budgets, the Milei administration has used state-owned companies including YPF, Aerolíneas Argentinas, and Banco Nación to reward compliance and punish dissent.
Electoral Strategy and Coalition Building
This civil war within the iron triangle is occurring amid the electoral campaign. Karina has subjugated the Macris—former president Mauricio and Buenos Aires City Mayor Jorge. They entered into a coalition with the ruling party in the City and Province to confront Kirchnerite Peronism, with La Libertad Avanza imposing almost every condition.
The Mileis are expanding their coalition’s electoral reach to the outer limits of what was once PRO’s territory, threatening the party’s very existence. They’ve absorbed key players including the previous election’s presidential ticket of Patricia Bullrich and Luis Petri, and in Buenos Aires Province have captured multiple municipalities. Milei and his supporters are confident they will win decisively in October’s national midterm elections, while expecting a strong showing in this weekend’s Buenos Aires Province local elections, particularly with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner barred from running and a fragmented Peronist field.
Economic Pressures and Political Reality
Even the most optimistic libertarian acknowledges it’s impossible to secure enough legislators to guarantee quorum or their own majorities. A pollster recently called them “minimalists,” noting they seek to protect Milei’s veto power, which translates to one-third of the chamber plus one vote, or 87 deputies. Milei has already faced multiple veto confrontations with Congress, indicating he won’t negotiate his budget surplus commitment.
This is particularly relevant as the economy shows multiple signs of losing momentum, forcing Economy Minister Luis “Toto” Caputo and Central Bank Governor Santiago Bausili to resort to aggressively high interest rates. These directly impact credit and economic output, meaning Milei and Caputo have prioritized containing the peso-dollar exchange rate to control inflation in exchange for a more recessionary environment.
The Clock is Ticking
Less than three months before the national election and going into the local election, tensions are mounting for both the Milei administration and the country generally. The president is placing his political project on the line, knowing he must deliver electorally to keep his re-election dreams alive. As economic damage continues spreading, his electorate may begin doubting their decision to put him in the Casa Rosada.
Milei counts on US support and implicit help from an opposition that cannot mount effective resistance at this juncture. However, unforced errors continue accumulating, and the internal power struggles within his closest circle threaten to undermine the very foundation of his political project. Whether the iron triangle can hold together long enough to secure electoral victory—or whether these internal contradictions will prove his undoing—remains the central question facing Argentine politics as the crucial electoral tests approach.
This piece was originally published in the Buenos Aires Times, Argentina’s only English-language newspaper.
