How To Trade GitLab Stock Ahead Of Its Upcoming Earnings?

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GitLab (NASDAQ:GTLB) a company that provides tools to help teams manage their software development lifecycle, is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, September 3, 2025. Consensus estimates point to revenues of about $227 million for the quarter, an increase of 25% year-over-year, while earnings are projected at about $0.16 per share, up marginally compared to last year.

CANADA – 2025/01/09: In this photo illustration, the GitLab logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen next to a keyboard. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Historical trends suggest the stock has a good chance of moving higher post earnings, with GitLab posting a positive one-day return following earnings about 67% of the time over the last three years. The company has $7.9 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $805 million, and it was operationally loss-making, with $-124 million in operating losses and net income of $12 million. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.

There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

GitLab’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 15 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 67% of the time.
• The percentage remains the same at 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 12%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -11%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of GitLab stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before GitLab. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like GitLab, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and clocked >91% returns since inception.