📝 usncan Note: Buy PG Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?
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Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) is expected to disclose its earnings on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. Analyzing the data from the past five years, P&G’s stock has consistently demonstrated a strong propensity for positive one-day returns following earnings announcements, occurring in 70% of cases. The median one-day increase was 2.2%, with the highest single-day rise hitting 4.1%.
While the actual outcomes compared to consensus projections will be critical, comprehending these historical trends can offer an edge for event-driven traders. Two primary strategies can be employed to leverage this information:
- Pre-Earnings Positioning: Traders might decide to position themselves ahead of the earnings release, based on historical probabilities.
- Post-Earnings Analysis: Alternatively, traders can examine the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are announced to guide their positioning.
The analysts’ consensus estimate for the forthcoming quarter is earnings of $1.42 per share on revenues of $20.85 billion. This represents a slight increase compared to the earnings of $1.40 per share on revenues of $20.53 billion from the same quarter last year, indicating expectations for stable, rather than substantial, growth.
From a fundamental standpoint, Procter & Gamble possesses a current market capitalization of about $372 billion. In the past year, the company generated $84 billion in revenue, and was operationally profitable with $20 billion in operating profits and a net income of $15 billion.
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See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Procter & Gamble’s Historical Probability Of Positive Post-Earnings Returns
Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points collected over the last five years, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns recorded. In total, positive 1D returns occurred roughly 70% of the time.
- Nonetheless, this percentage drops to 67% when considering data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 14 positive returns = 2.2%, while the median of the 6 negative returns = -2.9%
Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized alongside the statistics in the table below.
PG 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Relationship Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively safer strategy (though ineffective if the correlation is low) involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identifying a pair that shows the highest correlation, and executing the relevant trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader may choose to position themselves as “long” for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D denotes the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
PG Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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