📝 usncan Note: -3.8% Post-Earnings Pattern, Trade It?
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CHONGQING, CHINA – AUGUST 26: In this photo illustration, a smartphone displays the logo of Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE: BURL), the American off-price department store retailer, with the company’s latest stock market chart shown in the background on August 26, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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Burlington Stores (NYSE: BURL) is set to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Thursday, August 28, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.29 per share on $2.63 billion in revenue. This would indicate an 11% year-over-year increase in earnings and a 6% rise in sales compared to the previous year’s figures of $1.16 per share and $2.47 billion in revenue. Historically, BURL stock has dropped 55% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day decline of 3.8% and a maximum recorded drop of 13%.
BURL is a pure-play off-price retailer (smaller than TJX or Ross but expanding). Burlington Stores reported Q1 FY2025 sales of $2.5B (+6% year-over-year) with flat comps and an EPS of $1.67, exceeding estimates. For Q2, it anticipates 5–7% sales growth and an EPS of $1.20–$1.30, while reaffirming full-year EPS of $8.70–$9.30 and 6–8% sales growth, demonstrating resilience amidst tariff and macro pressures. See Buy or Fear Burlington Stock?
The company boasts a current market capitalization of $18 billion. Revenue over the past twelve months amounted to $11 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $730 million in operating profits and net income of $526 million. Although a lot will rely on how results compare to consensus and expectations, recognizing historical trends might give you an advantage if you are an event-driven trader. Separately, check Why Is Coty Stock Down 50%?
For event-driven traders, historical trends may provide an advantage, whether by positioning prior to earnings or reacting to movements post-release. That said, if you are looking for upside with less volatility than from individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks.
Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points collected over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns recorded. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 45% of the time.
- Significantly, this percentage drops to 42% if we analyze data for the past 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 9 positive returns = 8.7%, and the median of the 11 negative returns = -3.8%
Additional information for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized together with the statistics in the table below.
BURL Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Forward Returns
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Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though ineffective if the correlation is low) is to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D display the highest correlation, a trader may take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
BURL Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
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