📝 usncan Note: Water Scarcity Is Emerging As A $300 Billion Market Risk
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Peconic, N.Y.: Al Krupski, a fourth generation farmer and owner of Krupski Farms in Peconic, New York, holds dry soil that he describes as “powder” in one of his pumpkin fields, on Nov. 19, 2024. Long Island has undergone a three-month drought since an August 21 deluge of rain. (Photo by Steve Pfost/Newsday RM via Getty Images)
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Droughts and disrupted harvests are no longer just weather events — they are early warnings of the financial consequences of global water insecurity. This summer brought severe strain across key agricultural regions. By mid-May 2025, more than half of Europe and the Mediterranean basin faced drought conditions, while one-third of the U.S. population lived under drought or abnormal dryness by July. Syria’s wheat harvest fell 40%, Australian farmers were forced to cull livestock, and U.S. beef prices jumped more than 11% year-on-year.
These shocks highlight a growing reality: water scarcity is not a future sustainability challenge but a material financial risk, with the food sector at its core. Yet new research from the FAIRR Initiative, an $80 trillion investor network, released ahead of this week’s World Water Week in Stockholm, warns that most of the world’s largest protein producers remain unprepared. According to the Coller FAIRR Protein Producer Index, nearly two-thirds of the 60 companies assessed are still rated high risk on water use and scarcity, and only 19% have set any targets to reduce that exposure.
Water Is Becoming The Next Systemic Market Risk
Agriculture already consumes 70% of global freshwater and by 2030, demand is expected to outstrip supply by 40%. FAIRR’s analysis estimates that the cost of inaction on water risk will be between $200 and $300 billion across sectors, five times higher than the cost of proactive measures.
Henry Throp, research manager at FAIRR and lead author of the new briefing, described the challenge bluntly in an interview. “The economic picture painted by water insecurity is global, systemic and concerning,” he said. “One of the largest challenges for us now is building the evidence base to demonstrate how these upheavals translate to financial implications for companies and investors now and in the future – and how water resilience can create future value.”
This echoes the trajectory of carbon risk, where once intangible environmental issues rapidly became priced into assets, regulation, and investor expectations. Water risk is on a similar path, but moving faster and with less preparedness.
Protein Producers Are Underprepared
FAIRR’s Index findings highlight a dangerous lack of disclosure. Only ten livestock companies have set targets to reduce water withdrawals, and most of those focus narrowly on efficiency rather than cutting absolute use. Just one company, Vital Farms, disclosed all feed sources from water-stressed areas, while 44 companies disclosed nothing at all.
“The true scale of water risks to many companies remains largely underexplored,” Throp said. “For long-term investors, the nature of these risks could evolve considerably as cross-sectoral demand increases, the risks of climate change, especially extreme weather and environmental tipping points, hit vulnerable supply chains, and policy seeks to catch up. It is important that long-term investors are able to cost these plausible but wilder futures into long-term investment strategies.”
Protein production is especially exposed because of its reliance on water-intensive crops like soy and maize for animal feed. Regions of concern include the central United States, northern China, India, and the Middle East. “Water shocks and risks will take different forms in different regions – it can be a case of too much, too little or not at the right time,” Throp explained. “These risks can quickly cascade across supply chains and flows of finance to regions not experiencing water risks at that moment, too.”
The Hidden Exposure of Virtual Water
A major overlooked element is “virtual water” or the water embedded in traded goods. Nearly 20% of global water used for food production is effectively traded internationally through commodities like wheat, maize, soy, and livestock. This creates exposure far beyond drought-prone geographies.
Water, as Throp put it, is “a restless resource – travelling across borders and between economies – a flexibility that many companies with illiquid assets do not have.” For investors, that means shocks in one region can ripple quickly across global supply chains and balance sheets.
Disclosure Is the Investor’s First Line of Defense
FAIRR’s report stresses that disclosure is the foundation for resilience. Without data on water withdrawals and exposure to stressed regions, investors cannot assess risk. Throp notes that “there are many levers available to investors to build water resilience. The suitability of each will depend on factors like the investor’s portfolio exposures, timelines for investment and unique ownership approaches. We see many investors implementing corporate expectations on water use, screening investments based on exposure to water stress, as well as directly engaging with companies to enhance water resilience.”
Beyond disclosure, Throp emphasizes the need for evidence of real strategies, not just efficiency claims. “The devil is in the detail. Even better is companies providing evidence that they have built strategies and partnerships to enhance water resilience that responds most meaningfully to their own exposures. Evidence that agriculture companies are taking steps to enact these strategies – such as by investing in regenerative agriculture or providing guidance and resources to supply chain actors – is welcome.”
Rising Competition for Water Across Sectors
Agriculture is the dominant water user today, but it is no longer the only one drawing scrutiny. Big Tech and artificial intelligence have come under the spotlight for the water intensity of cooling data centers. For investors, that means water scarcity is not confined to food but could become a cross-sectoral source of financial strain.
“There is a real opportunity to use the spotlight on emerging industries – like big tech – and traditionally water intensive sectors – like agriculture – to share lessons learned and embed best practice in how investors are able to meaningfully engage with companies on water resilience,” Throp said.
This convergence of demand could accelerate regulatory responses and investor engagement, with water risk becoming a mainstream materiality issue in capital allocation decisions.
Credit Markets Are Sounding the Alarm
Water insecurity is not only an operational and supply chain issue but a growing credit risk. These risks extend beyond climate-related concerns to include access, availability, pollution, and pricing and extend beyond agriculture to extractives, utilities, and sovereigns, especially in emerging markets where affordability and water rights collide with rising demand.
Credit risk specialist Moody’s has identified eight sectors with nearly $2 trillion in debt that is highly exposed to water management issues, while a further 16 sectors with $6.5 trillion in rated debt have moderate exposure. The scale of the risk is global too – analysis has shown nearly 60% of global GDP, equivalent to $58 trillion to be highly vulnerable to water availability. For credit markets, that means water scarcity is not just a sectoral concern but a macroeconomic one, shaping sovereign and corporate stability alike.
The short-term effects are already visible in reduced yields, higher input costs, and food price volatility. Over the longer term, demand is set to exceed supply by 40% by 2030, reshaping trade flows and credit quality. Governments that invest in water management may face near-term costs, but those expenditures are credit positive. Those that fail to act risk weakening public finances and social stability. For investors, the message is clear: water insecurity is now a material factor in both equity and debt markets. Ignoring it leaves portfolios exposed to hidden vulnerabilities.
What Investors Must Demand Now
FAIRR outlines clear steps for investors. They should push companies for full supply chain transparency, advocate for standardized and comparable water metrics, and insist on ambitious, time-bound targets for reducing exposure. Throp adds that aligning targets with governance and even variable pay would send a clear signal to markets. “Ambitious company targets to enhance water resilience – especially if they are connected to governance performance reviews and variable pay – can help reassure investors that companies are truly trying to mitigate exposure.”
The imperative is not just to avoid losses but to capture value. “In doing so, we must keep in mind that the water crisis is deeply connected with other imperatives of our time, including climate change and biodiversity loss, as well as AMR transmission and the Just Transition,” Throp said.
A Systemic Risk Investors Can No Longer Ignore
Water insecurity is no longer an environmental issue on the horizon. It is a financial reality already reshaping markets through higher feed costs, volatile food prices, and disrupted supply chains. For water-intensive industries, rising scarcity is inflating expenses and threatening competitiveness. Yet disclosure and mitigation remain inadequate, leaving investors unable to distinguish between companies managing exposure and those at risk.
While FAIRR is exposing failures in disclosure, Moody’s research underscores that this is not an issue confined to equities. Credit markets are also exposed, with trillions in corporate and sovereign debt vulnerable to water management risks. Governments and companies that act early to build resilience will safeguard stability and long-term value, while those that delay will face higher costs of capital and greater volatility.
Markets will inevitably reprice this risk. For businesses, the message is that water is no longer an operational footnote but a constraint that will shape competitiveness, regulation, and financing conditions. For investors, the absence of disclosure means a dangerous information gap at the heart of portfolio analysis. Without better data and more ambitious targets, capital is being allocated into sectors and issuers with hidden vulnerabilities that could soon crystallize into losses.
The question for investors isn’t whether water will reshape markets — it’s whether their portfolios will be prepared when it does.
